Great summary. I’d add one more point: buyers shouldn’t focus solely on the headline mortgage rate. The total cost of homeownership—insurance, property taxes, maintenance, HOA fees, and local market conditions—often has just as much impact on affordability as the interest rate itself.
The “lock-in effect” is also underrated. Millions of homeowners with 2–3% mortgages have little incentive to move, keeping inventory constrained even as demand softens. That supply shortage has helped support home prices despite higher borrowing costs.
As for waiting, there’s always a risk that rates fall but home prices or competition rise, offsetting any savings. For buyers who find a home they can comfortably afford today, buying now and refinancing later (if rates decline) can be a reasonable strategy. For those stretching their budget, patience may still be the better option.
Overall, 2026 feels less like a housing crash and more like a prolonged affordability reset. For anyone weighing whether to lock in a mortgage or continue waiting, this guide covers many of the trade-offs discussed here
